Korea Memory Earnings Week: Samsung's ₩107.4T Q3 Profit Meets SK hynix's ₩77T Consensus as Shares Slide 28%
Korea Memory Earnings Week: Samsung's ₩107.4T Q3 Profit Meets SK hynix's ₩77T Consensus as Shares Slide 28%
📌 Q3 2026 Earnings Week Highlights
Blue = company-disclosed; grey = sell-side estimate. Results due Oct 28–29 KST.
Korea's two memory giants report within 25 hours of each other this week. SK hynix publishes Q3 2026 results before 9:00 a.m. KST on Wednesday, Oct 28, and Samsung Electronics follows with its full divisional breakdown and earnings call at 10:00 a.m. KST on Thursday, Oct 29. The setup is unusual. Profits are at record highs while both stocks are well off their peaks, and investors appear more focused on how long the cycle lasts and on shareholder returns than on the headline numbers.
1. What Happened: The Reported Facts
Reported FactsAccording to Samsung's Oct 8 earnings guidance, Q3 consolidated operating profit was approximately ₩107.4 trillion on sales of about ₩195 trillion. That is up 20.0% from Q2 (₩89.49T) and 782.5% from Q3 2025 (₩12.17T). Reuters reported the figure was slightly ahead of an LSEG SmartEstimate of ₩106.1T and called it the first 100-trillion-won quarter for any technology company.
According to SK hynix's newsroom and Form 6-K, the company will release Q3 results before its 9:00 a.m. KST call on Oct 28. Its last reported quarter (Q2 2026) delivered ₩79.32T revenue and ₩60.54T operating profit, a 76% margin. Two other disclosures came in the past week:
- Buyback completed (filing, Oct 26): SK hynix finished its ₩40T repurchase on Oct 21. It bought 23,693,272 shares for about ₩40.004T and will cancel all of them on Nov 5, cutting issued shares from 730,492,365 to 706,799,093 (−3.24%), as reported by Economic Signal.
- Solidigm IPO halted (Oct 23): SK hynix said it stopped reviewing a pre-IPO round and U.S. listing for its NAND/SSD subsidiary, citing capital-market conditions. Regulators had flagged "duplicate listing" concerns, according to Yonhap.
Chart: quarterly operating profit (KRW trillion). Samsung Q3'26 is preliminary guidance; SK hynix Q3'26 is FnGuide consensus, not a reported figure.
2. Side-by-Side: What the Numbers Imply
The matrix below separates disclosed figures from consensus. Margins marked "derived" are our arithmetic on the cited inputs, not company guidance.
| Metric | Samsung Electronics | SK hynix |
|---|---|---|
| Results / call (KST) | Oct 29, 10:00 a.m. | Oct 28, 9:00 a.m. |
| Q3'26 operating profit | ₩107.4T (prelim.) | ₩76.96T (consensus) |
| Q3'26 revenue | ~₩195T (prelim.) | ₩98.23T (consensus) |
| Q3'26 OP margin (derived) | ~55.1% | ~78.3% if consensus holds |
| Q2'26 operating profit (actual) | ₩89.49T | ₩60.54T (76% margin) |
| Implied QoQ OP growth | +20.0% | ~+27% (vs. consensus) |
| Recent share-price move | >25% below June record (Reuters, Oct 8) | −28.1%, Sep 30 → Oct 23 (SMarkets) |
| Key open item | Divisional split; return-policy detail | Post-buyback return plan |
Sources: Samsung guidance & KRX disclosure (Oct 8); SK hynix 2Q26 release (Jul 29); FnGuide consensus via Financial News/SMarkets; Reuters (Oct 8). Samsung's margin is consolidated and includes mobile, display and appliances. It is not a like-for-like memory comparison.
Reported FactsConsensus has drifted lower even as profits rise. SMarkets notes the FnGuide SK hynix estimate fell 5.6% in three months, from ₩81.51T to ₩76.96T. Financial News attributed the cut to a stronger won reducing the KRW value of dollar sales. Reuters reported the same currency effect weighing on Samsung forecasts. It also said analysts expect Samsung's Q4 profit to grow about 8.2% QoQ, slower than Q3's 20%. TrendForce sees Q4 conventional DRAM contract prices rising 10–15%, versus roughly 60% in Q2.
💡 Market Analyst Takeaway
AnalysisThe level of profit is mostly known. Samsung pre-announced, and SK hynix consensus implies a margin near 78%. The market now cares about the slope. With Q4 DRAM price growth projected (per TrendForce) to slow to 10–15% and analysts already modelling slower sequential growth at Samsung, management commentary on 2027 contract pricing and long-term agreements matters more than a modest beat or miss.
AnalysisFor SK hynix, the Solidigm decision removes one overhang. The next question is the scale of returns beyond the ₩40T buyback. Economic Signal reports market talk of ₩50–60T under the "more than 50% of FCF" policy, but that is an industry estimate, not a company figure. A credible, dated plan would likely matter more than the size of the number.
3. What to Watch on the Calls
- Samsung (memory recovery vs. drag): At its Q2 call, Samsung guided that HBM4 sales would more than triple QoQ in Q3. It also said HBM4 should exceed 60% of its HBM sales in H2 and expected supply shortages to persist into 2028 (Asia Business Daily, Jul 30). Thursday is the first chance to check that against reported numbers. Reuters cited analysts expecting a mobile loss above $1B and a loss-making foundry unit.
- SK hynix (durability of the cycle): Watch HBM4 volume, long-term agreement coverage and capex discipline. KB Securities estimates that 70–80% of both companies' planned 2027 memory output is already under five-year contracts with big tech (via Economic Signal). That is a broker estimate, not company disclosure.
- Market weight: SK hynix accounted for 25.0% of KOSPI trading value from Oct 1–23 against a 20.36% share of market value (SMarkets). For foreign investors, that makes Wednesday's print a likely driver of the broader Korean market, not just the stock.
Related coverage: SK hynix's ₩40T buyback and FCF return floor and the Solidigm pre-IPO dilemma.
Read the Q3 2026 Filings at the Source
Earnings releases, presentations and webcasts will be posted on each company's official Investor Relations site on Oct 28–29 (KST).
🔍 SK hynix Official IR: Q3 2026 Earnings Release 🔍 Samsung Electronics Official IR: 3Q26 Earnings Call
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